Saturday, January 1, 2011

PAC-10 vs SEC

So, I've been hearing a lot of announcers (on tv) and friends of mine (usually at slimy bars) saying how much better the SEC is than the PAC-10. While, I don't think they are necessarily wrong, I do think it is a lot closer than people expect it to be. So I decided to a bit of research and see what the numbers say. I looked at RPI and the Sagarin rankings for this post:


A look at RPI:

SEC:
Auburn is #1
LSU is #9
Alabama is #17
South Carolina is #24
Miss St #28
Florida #36
Georgia #70
Tenn #71
Kentucky #75
Mississippi #82
Vandy #110

PAC 10
Oregon is #3
Stanford is #6
Utah #19
USC #42
Washington #52
Arizona #53
ASU #60
Oregon St. #64
Cal #72
Colorado #78
UCLA #90
Wazzou #107

The RPI says its pretty even at the top, the SEC has the advantage in the middle and the PAC-10 has the advantage at the bottom. So it still looks like the SEC has an edge, albeit a slim one.

Now let’s look at Sagarin computer based rankings () that only take into account strength of schedule and Wins and Losses, not preseason rankings. The numbers represent a point spread, and 3 points are given to a home team, so a team A rated 90 playing team B rated 87 (at team A’s stadium) would be favored by 6. If they played at the team B’s stadium the game would be a pick 'em.The computer model actually puts the PAC-10 ahead.

Total Conference Rating:
PAC-10 #1 with 80.22 mean rating
SEC #2 with 80.19 mean rating.

Just for fun here are the two teams joining the PAC-10 next year
*Utah #21-81.78
*Colorado #60- 71.86

PAC-10:
Oregon #1- 94.68
Stanford #2- 94.51
USC #22- 81.65
Arizona #23- 81.54
ASU #24- 80.95
Oregon St #31- 79.12
Cal #34- 78.14
Wash #43- 75.70
UCLA #61- 71.63
Wazzou #83- 66.53

SEC
Auburn #3-94.47
Alabama #5- 90.59
Arkansas #7- 89.76
LSU #11- 88.07
S Car #17- 85.03
Miss St. #25- 80.43
Florida #26- 79.82
Georgia #36- 77.03
Tenn #54- 73.07
UK #66- 70.23
Miss #85- 66.49
Vandy #121- 59.23

The Sagarin rankings actually have the best two teams in the country coming from the PAC-10, and they make the PAC-10 look deeper than the SEC from top to bottom, not to mention the bottom 4 PAC-10 teams being much better than the bottom 4 SEC teams. All in all, its looks like the conferences are pretty evenly matched, and the National title game will go a long way to settle this debate

No comments:

Post a Comment